Saudi Population Census: Comprehensive Analysis of Economic and Social Impacts

The population census forms the cornerstone of strategic planning processes for any country, and in Saudi Arabia, the importance of this process increases with the rapid changes in the demographic and economic landscape. The population census is defined as a systematic process of collecting comprehensive information about all individuals residing within the Kingdom's borders, including data on gender, age group, social status, nationality, occupation, and geographic location. The importance of the census in Saudi Arabia extends beyond merely measuring the population; it also involves analyzing their characteristics and distribution, which helps in identifying the actual needs of various sectors, from education and health to transportation and housing. This importance is particularly highlighted in the context of the Kingdom's Vision 2030, which places human and economic development at the core of its objectives and relies on accurate population data to design developmental programs and initiatives. For instance, census results help determine the locations of new schools and hospitals, estimate future housing demand, and plan transportation, water, and electricity networks. Furthermore, investors and decision-makers in the financial sector rely on this data to assess growth opportunities in sectors linked to population growth, such as real estate and construction materials. The Saudi leadership recognized this importance early on, mobilizing human and technical resources to implement the 2022 general census scientifically and accurately, under direct supervision from the Ministry of Economy and Planning and supported by the highest government levels. The population census in Saudi Arabia has become a primary reference for establishing transparency and determining economic and social policies, as well as being a vital indicator for monitoring demographic transformations that affect the labor market, demand for goods and services, and the distribution of public and private investments across various regions of the Kingdom.

Recent estimates indicate that the population of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia reached approximately 36 to 37 million at the beginning of 2024, distributed between citizens and residents. These figures are based on data from the General Authority for Statistics, pending the publication of detailed results from the official 2022 census. It is noteworthy that the annual population growth rate in Saudi Arabia ranges between 1% and 2%, a moderate rate compared to many developing countries, reflecting a mix of natural growth (birth rate) and the influx of foreign labor. Saudi citizens constitute about 60-65% of the total population, while foreign labor and residents represent approximately 35-40%. Data shows that the demographic structure in the Kingdom is predominantly young, with estimates indicating that over 60% of the population is under the age of thirty. This demographic characteristic provides the Kingdom with a massive labor force and enormous investment opportunities in education, training, and employment. Additionally, the geographic distribution of the population is concentrated in major cities such as Riyadh, Jeddah, Makkah, and the Eastern Province, where data indicates an increase in internal migration from rural areas to urban centers in search of better job opportunities and services. The General Authority for Statistics data for 2024 reveals that 59.1% of adults engage in regular physical activity, indicating a rise in health awareness among the population. The birth rate is estimated at between 2 and 3 births per woman, supporting the continuous renewal of the labor force. These indicators are crucial for government policy planning, as they allow for estimating future public service needs and help direct investments in strategic sectors in line with expected demographic transformations over the coming years.

Saudi Arabia features a unique demographic structure, prominently showcasing the youth category, which reflects on the labor market and future demand for services and infrastructure. Statistics indicate that approximately 70% of Saudis are under the age of fifty, while those under thirty account for nearly 60% of the total population. This youthful age distribution is a long-term competitive advantage, providing a broad base of individuals capable of working and contributing to the economy. In terms of gender, there is a relative predominance of males among foreign residents, as the majority of foreign labor consists of males, particularly in construction, industry, and services, while the balance between males and females among Saudi citizens is closer to equal. Regarding nationality, Saudi citizens make up the majority (60-65%), while the rest of the population is distributed among various Arab, Asian, and African nationalities working in different economic sectors, especially in major cities. This diversity in nationality reflects the ongoing need for skilled and unskilled labor in the Saudi economy. The Kingdom benefits from this structure in achieving localization goals and Saudization programs, as it seeks to gradually increase the participation rate of citizens in the labor market. Additionally, the diversity of age groups requires careful planning of health, educational, and social services to meet the needs of children, youth, and the elderly. Detailed data on the distribution of age groups, gender, and nationality provides a solid foundation for guiding government policies and analyzing market needs, especially in sectors that depend on the size and distribution of the labor force and population, such as real estate, education, health, and retail.

The geographic distribution of the population is a critical factor in directing public and private investments and planning housing and infrastructure projects in Saudi Arabia. Statistics show that population density is primarily concentrated in major cities, notably Riyadh, Jeddah, Makkah, and the Eastern Province (Dammam, Khobar, and Dhahran). For instance, Riyadh and the Eastern Province together host between 30-35% of the Kingdom's total population, while the Makkah region (including Jeddah) comprises about 15-20%, followed by Madinah with a share of 5-10%. This distribution reflects the ongoing shift towards urbanization, as populations migrate from rural areas and smaller provinces to major cities in search of job opportunities and advanced health services. These transformations impact the real estate and housing market, as demand for housing units and apartments in urban areas rises, increasing pressure on transportation, water, and electricity networks. Furthermore, the concentration of the population in cities drives the government to expand infrastructure projects, such as constructing highways, expanding airports, and building modern hospitals and schools. The precise geographic distribution of the population allows regulatory bodies to assess the need for developing less dense areas and stimulate investment in secondary cities through housing and regional development programs. Additionally, this distribution affects the financial sector, as major companies prefer to direct their investments to densely populated areas to ensure better investment returns. Therefore, understanding the details of the geographic distribution of the population remains a fundamental aspect of analyzing market trends and the opportunities available to companies across various sectors.

Population growth in Saudi Arabia results from a combination of interrelated factors, most notably birth rates, external migration, and demographic changes associated with localization programs and population policies. The birth rate in the Kingdom ranges between 2 and 3 births per woman, which is relatively high globally, contributing to the continuous renewal of the labor force. This natural growth is complemented by a limited influx of foreign labor, as the construction, services, and industry sectors rely on foreign labor from Arab and Asian countries, raising the percentage of residents at certain times according to labor market demands. Conversely, the government aims through national vision programs to achieve demographic balance by enhancing citizen participation in the labor market and encouraging Saudization in vital sectors. It is noted that population growth rates have begun to trend toward moderation in recent years, due to rising education levels, changing marriage and childbirth patterns, and increased life expectancy. Additionally, internal migration from rural to urban areas contributes to redistributing the population, leading to urban sprawl and declining density in some peripheral areas. Data shows that most expatriates are male and work in manual and professional jobs, while the percentage of Saudis increases in administrative and service positions. Collectively, these factors indicate that the Kingdom is entering a new phase of demographic balance, where strategic planning becomes increasingly important to meet the changing needs of the population and achieve sustainable development across various regions of the country.

The population census directly impacts various components of the Saudi economy, as population growth serves as a primary driver of demand for goods and services and forms the basis for growth forecasts in vital sectors. In the housing and real estate sector, an increasing population leads to a heightened need for new housing units, prompting real estate development companies to expand their projects, especially in major cities experiencing rapid population growth. In the construction and building materials sector, an increasing census means higher demand for cement, steel, and concrete, boosting sales for cement companies like Hail Cement, Qassim Cement, and Yamama Cement. Service sectors such as education and health benefit from population growth, as this increase necessitates the establishment of new schools and hospitals and the expansion of existing services to keep pace with demographic growth. Additionally, the population census reflects on the retail and consumption sector, where demand for food, clothing, and consumer products rises. These factors collectively affect the Kingdom's GDP, as investments in infrastructure and mega-projects (such as NEOM, the Red Sea Project, and the Economic City of Jeddah) rely on accurate estimates of population numbers and their future needs. Furthermore, government policies depend on census data to formulate public spending plans and estimate the level of support required for essential services. Thus, the population census serves as a fundamental reference for directing investments, analyzing risks, and estimating expected returns in various sectors of the Saudi economy.

The cement and construction sector is one of the most closely linked to population growth in Saudi Arabia, as an increase in population directly translates into higher demand for housing, facilities, and infrastructure. With each population increase, the need for building new housing units, schools, hospitals, and roads rises, prompting cement companies to expand their production capacities to meet demand. Vision 2030 projects such as NEOM, the Red Sea Project, and the Economic City of Jeddah serve as additional catalysts for sector growth, as these projects require massive quantities of cement and building materials over the years. This dynamic has reflected positively on the performance of listed cement companies in the Saudi financial market, such as Hail Cement (3001), Qassim Cement, Yamama Cement, and Riyadh Cement, which have seen increases in sales and profits in recent years. These companies benefit from stable domestic demand, in addition to opportunities for export to neighboring countries. Financial data indicates that the price-to-earnings ratio for the cement sector typically ranges between 8 and 12 times, with regular dividend distributions ranging from 3% to 5% annually, reflecting the sector's stability and ability to achieve sustainable returns for shareholders. With the government's focus on expanding housing and infrastructure projects within massive annual budgets, the cement and construction sector is expected to remain one of the biggest beneficiaries of population growth, making it a central focus in analyzing the impact of the population census on the national economy.

The Saudi cement market includes several major companies, each with a strategic position and significant market share. Among these companies are Hail Cement (3001), Qassim Cement, Yamama Cement, Riyadh Cement, Eastern Cement Company, Tabuk Cement, Northern Cement, and Southern Cement (Najran). These companies compete based on production capacity, product quality, pricing, and operational efficiency. For example, Qassim Cement expanded by establishing modern production lines, enhancing its ability to meet growing demand in the central region of the Kingdom. Yamama Cement, one of the oldest and largest cement producers, targets the local market and government projects. Riyadh Cement serves urban markets in the capital and its suburbs, while Eastern Cement Company covers areas in Madinah and the Eastern Province. Tabuk Cement and Northern Cement focus on northern regions, while Southern Cement thrives in southern areas due to active infrastructure projects. The cement sector faces several challenges, including fluctuations in energy prices, transportation costs, and competition from imports from neighboring countries. However, local demand linked to population growth and government projects remains the decisive factor in the stability of companies' sales and profits. Financial data for the sector shows stability in profits and regular cash distributions, enhancing the sector's attractiveness in the financial market, especially for investors seeking stable returns and long-term growth.

The results of the population census significantly influence the Saudi government's plans for spending on infrastructure and public services. As the population increases, the need arises to expand water and electricity networks, build new roads, and develop public facilities such as schools and hospitals. The government uses census data to estimate future spending levels within the general budget and to prioritize investments based on population density and geographic distribution. For instance, in recent years, there has been an increase in government housing projects, building thousands of housing units for employees and soldiers, and expanding airports and major roads such as the Riyadh-Makkah road. Additionally, the concentration of the population in major cities has led to the expansion of public transportation networks and the construction of train and metro stations. Planning these projects relies on accurate data about the number and distribution of the population to avoid overcrowding or inadequate services in certain areas. These plans also affect contracting and building materials companies, which are entrusted with executing major projects, reflecting on the performance of listed stocks in the financial market. Investment in infrastructure is one of the key pillars for achieving Vision 2030 goals, as the government seeks to turn population growth into a driving force for economic development and achieve balance between urban and rural areas by improving service levels and providing job opportunities for citizens.

The population census directly impacts the Saudi labor market by determining the size of the current and future workforce and its distribution across various sectors. With a significant percentage of youth under the age of thirty (approximately 60% of the population), the Kingdom faces both a challenge and an opportunity: the need to provide sufficient job opportunities for this active demographic. This demographic structure drives the government to adopt localization policies (Saudization) and increase citizen participation in vital economic sectors. There is also a pressing need to develop vocational education and training programs to align educational outcomes with changing market requirements. Conversely, several sectors, such as construction and services, rely on foreign labor, making the population census a tool for analyzing the balance between citizens and residents in the labor market. Census data helps monitor unemployment rates and identify areas that require developmental interventions to create new jobs. These transformations also reflect on economic policies, as the government sets clear targets to raise the percentage of Saudis in private sector jobs and encourages entrepreneurship and small businesses. Understanding the distribution of the workforce by age, gender, and nationality allows the private sector to develop more effective hiring and training strategies. Ultimately, the population census serves as a foundational reference for shaping labor market policies and achieving a balance between economic growth and providing job opportunities for citizens.

The population census is a pivotal tool in urban planning and achieving sustainable development in Saudi Arabia. Census data enables relevant authorities to create accurate maps of population density and identify areas needing urban development or improvement in basic services. In major cities like Riyadh, Jeddah, and Dammam, rapid population growth has led to challenges in traffic management, housing, and public facilities, necessitating advanced planning for smart cities and balanced distribution of residential, commercial, and industrial areas. Census data assists in monitoring internal migration, predicting urbanization trends, and planning public transport networks and metro projects. It is also used to determine investment priorities in public parks, playgrounds, and community centers, aligning with the needs of different age groups. Census data supports government efforts to achieve sustainable development goals, such as improving air quality, managing water resources, and reducing energy waste. Moreover, urban planning based on demographic information helps reduce disparities between urban and rural areas and achieve a balance between population and economic development. Under Vision 2030, leveraging census results is a key focus in shaping urban development policies, ensuring the well-being of residents, and ensuring resource sustainability for future generations.

Population census data plays a crucial role in evaluating investment opportunities and analyzing the performance of various sectors in the Saudi financial market. Understanding the size and demographic and geographic distribution of the population helps investors estimate future demand for goods and services and identify the companies and sectors most likely to grow. For example, an increase in population in major cities leads to higher demand for real estate, cement, construction equipment, and consumer services, making stocks of companies operating in these sectors more attractive to some investors. Census data also aids in analyzing risks associated with demographic changes, such as population aging or declining birth rates, which may impact sectors like health insurance or education. Conversely, investors monitor census results to assess the feasibility of long-term investments in infrastructure and housing projects, as population stability or growth indicates continued strong demand for these products and services. Additionally, investment funds and major companies rely on demographic analysis to direct their investments toward areas with higher population density or faster growth, enhancing the chances of achieving higher returns. Thus, it can be said that the population census is not just a statistical procedure but an essential tool in analyzing market trends, evaluating investment opportunities, and formulating financial strategies in the Kingdom.

The cement sector in Saudi Arabia has witnessed notable developments during 2024 and 2025, driven by rising domestic demand and major government projects. The government announced plans to build thousands of housing units and expand transportation and infrastructure networks, significantly increasing cement consumption across various regions of the Kingdom. Additionally, some major companies opened new production lines for reinforced cement to meet the needs of massive projects such as the Riyadh-Makkah road and airports in the Eastern Province. On the foreign trade front, Saudi cement exports to neighboring countries such as Yemen and the UAE increased, benefiting from competitive prices and the quality of local products. However, the sector faced some challenges, such as customs barriers imposed by some Gulf countries to control local supplies. Financially, most listed cement companies reported strong results for the first half of 2024, achieving record profits and increased dividend distributions. This was reflected in rising stock prices and increased interest from institutional and individual investors. This coincided with stable inflation rates, which reached around 2-3%, helping to lower the costs of implementing new projects. At the same time, the government continued to support the energy sector, maintaining stable production costs for cement companies. These developments confirm that the cement sector remains one of the cornerstones of the Saudi economy, benefiting directly from population growth and ambitious government projects under Vision 2030.

The population census plays a pivotal role in achieving the goals of Saudi Vision 2030, which focuses on sustainable development, diversifying income sources, and improving the quality of life for residents. Vision programs rely on accurate data regarding population size, geographic distribution, and age groups to effectively guide government policies. For instance, census data contributes to identifying areas that require additional investments in housing, education, health, and infrastructure, helping to achieve balance between urban and rural areas. It also supports localization efforts and Saudization programs by identifying the size of the national workforce and future labor market needs. The government uses census results to design smart housing programs for families, plan new cities, and improve transportation networks in line with residents' aspirations and economic growth requirements. This data also serves as a fundamental reference in evaluating the effectiveness of development programs, identifying areas for improvement, and adjusting policies according to demographic transformations. In this context, census data enhances the Kingdom's ability to attract foreign investments, as it provides investors with a clear picture of the local market size, demand trends, and opportunities in vital sectors. Thus, it is clear that the population census is not just a statistical tool but a strategic element in achieving Vision 2030 and driving economic and social development in the Kingdom.