Saudi equities traded under a bear-regime classification on March 3, with 20-day momentum at −10.32 and a market-wide average RSI of 27.67—deep in oversold territory. Breadth was firmly positive: 183 stocks advanced against 72 declining. Annualized 20-day volatility stood at 0.34 and the composite signal registered neutral. Of the 22 sector indices, 9 advanced and 13 declined.
Banks gained 0.76% with internal breadth of 8 advancing to 2 declining and 20-day momentum at 6.48. Energy rose 1.78% as 6 of 7 constituents advanced, carrying sector momentum of 6.41 amid a sharp single-session rally in crude oil. Materials added 1.53% on the broadest internal breadth of the session—37 advancers versus 6 decliners—though 20-day momentum was a muted 0.71; the 30-day Materials-Brent correlation stood at −0.13, suggesting limited direct crude pass-through. Capital Goods led the board at +2.42%, while Software & Services was the weakest index at −4.60%.
Electrical Industries Co. (1303) rose 4.72% to SAR 14.19 on volume of 10.5 million shares, trading at 2.40x its 20-day average. Smart money flow and institutional activity were both flagged, and the large order ratio stood at 5.92x, yet the liquidity indicator flagged sell pressure and the order flow ratio was negative at −0.86. Market maker activity was also noted. The company trades at a trailing P/E of 30.62; a single analyst covers the stock with a 2026 EPS estimate of SAR 0.63.
Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (2222) advanced 1.63% to SAR 26.22 on volume of 28.4 million shares—2.43x average. The liquidity indicator registered buy pressure with market maker activity and institutional activity both flagged, alongside a positive order flow ratio of 0.23. Aramco trades at a trailing P/E of 17.09; sixteen analysts cover the stock with a consensus 2026 EPS estimate of SAR 1.56, high disagreement among forecasters, and a recent four-quarter beat rate of 75%.
Al Rajhi Bank (1120) dipped 0.46% to SAR 97.10, yet volume surged to 17.2 million shares—4.69x its 20-day average. Volume-price divergence was flagged: elevated turnover against a negligible price move. Buying pressure was active alongside market maker activity, while the liquidity indicator was neutral and the order flow ratio registered a thin 0.09. Trailing P/E stands at 16.68 with a recent four-quarter beat rate of 75%.
The Saudi National Bank (1180) edged up 0.20% to SAR 39.98 on volume at 1.65x average. Accumulation and stealth accumulation signals were both active, with smart money flow, institutional activity, and market maker activity all flagged. Buying pressure was present and the liquidity indicator read strong buy. Trailing P/E is 9.92 with a lifetime beat rate of 95% and a recent four-quarter beat rate of 75%, though the last quarter was a miss.
"According to the Sigmix Microstructure Engine: Alinma Bank (1150) recorded a net order flow of +93,886 with an order imbalance of 8.50x on a session where its liquidity indicator read strong buy and smart money flow was active—volume ran at 1.26x average. Separately, The Saudi National Bank (1180) posted a net order flow of +7,245 with an order flow ratio of 0.634, as both accumulation and stealth accumulation signals were flagged alongside an order imbalance of 4.46x."
Brent crude surged 7.25% to $83.73, while gold retreated 2.22% to $5,203.82. The U.S. equity regime remains neutral for a fourth consecutive session. The SPY-TASI channel is normal at a 30-day correlation of 0.04, but the USO-Aramco channel is broken at −0.29 with a 7-day delta of −0.32—signaling a disconnect in oil-price transmission to the Saudi energy complex.
Q4 GDP Growth (YoY Final) is scheduled for release on March 9, with consensus at 4.9% versus a prior 4.8%. January Industrial Production data is scheduled for March 10, with a forecast of 8.3% against a prior reading of 8.9%; no market consensus has been published for that release.
What is not confirmed:
- Whether the deeply oversold market RSI of 27.67 will trigger a broader mean-reversion rally or reflects structural re-pricing
- Whether the broken USO-Aramco transmission channel (−0.29 correlation) will re-couple despite Brent's 7.25% single-session surge
- Whether the positive breadth divergence—183 advancing against 72 declining—inside a bear regime signals a pending regime transition
- Whether the elevated volume at Al Rajhi Bank (4.69x average) alongside volume-price divergence reflects repositioning or passive rebalancing
This report is produced by the Sigmix Intelligence Desk for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All data is sourced from Sigmix proprietary systems and public market feeds. Readers should conduct their own due diligence before making any investment decisions.