The Tadawul All Share Index closed at 10,692.69 on March 4, operating under a bear regime classification with 20-day momentum at –9.72% and a market-wide average RSI of 27.34, placing conditions firmly in oversold territory. Breadth was strongly positive: 183 stocks advanced against 72 decliners, with none unchanged. At the sector level, 21 of 22 sectors posted gains. The composite signal registered neutral with a strength reading of 46.15.
Banks added 1.23% with internal breadth of 8 advancing versus 2 declining. Materials rose 2.17%, showing broad participation with 37 advancers to 6 decliners; the sector's 30-day Brent correlation stands at –0.13, indicating minimal crude linkage in the near term. Energy was the day's sole sector loss, falling 2.20%, despite positive internal breadth of 6 to 1. Media & Entertainment posted the largest sector gain at 7.61%, though internal breadth was negative at 1 advancer versus 3 decliners, suggesting the move was driven by a single constituent. Consumer Services gained 3.57% and Real Estate Management & Development advanced 3.49% with all three constituents rising.
Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (2222) rose 1.91% to SAR 26.72 on volume of 23.5 million shares at 1.97x average. Despite the positive price action, institutional selling was flagged alongside selling pressure and volume-price divergence — while the order-book liquidity indicator read buy pressure, a notable contradiction in directional signals. Aramco trades at a trailing P/E of 17.09 with a forward P/E of 15.45. Sixteen analysts cover the stock with a consensus EPS estimate of SAR 1.56 for 2026. On the earnings front, Aramco has beaten estimates in three consecutive quarters with a 75% hit rate over the last four periods.
Alinma Bank (1150) gained 1.33% to SAR 27.36 on volume of 5.2 million shares at 0.87x average, below the daily norm. The liquidity indicator signaled strong buy-side interest with smart money flow active, buying pressure flagged, and an order imbalance of 8.50x. The stock carries a trailing P/E of 11.34 and a forward P/E of 11.44. Alinma's most recent quarterly result was a miss, though the bank has posted seven consecutive beats prior.
Al Rajhi Bank (1120) edged up 0.88% to SAR 97.95 on volume of 5.0 million shares at 1.35x average. The liquidity indicator was neutral with market-maker activity detected and an order imbalance of 1.19x. Al Rajhi trades at a trailing P/E of 16.90 with a forward P/E of 18.94. The bank beat estimates in its most recent quarter and has delivered six consecutive beats.
Arabian Pipes Co. (2200) fell 4.04% to SAR 4.28 on volume of 4.5 million shares at 1.14x average. Despite the price decline, the liquidity indicator registered strong buy-side interest with smart money flow active and buying pressure flagged — a disconnect between microstructure signals and price action. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 7.89. One analyst covers Arabian Pipes with a 2026 EPS estimate of SAR 0.86. The company beat estimates in its most recent quarter.
Electrical Industries Co. (1303) rose 5.64% to SAR 14.99 on volume of 7.3 million shares at 1.66x average, with smart money flow and market-maker activity detected. However, the liquidity indicator flagged sell-side pressure with a negative net order flow of –26,510 contracts, suggesting the rally may have occurred against institutional positioning. The company trades at a trailing P/E of 30.62 with a forward P/E of 23.71, and one analyst estimates EPS of SAR 0.63 for 2026.
"According to the Sigmix Microstructure Engine: Alinma Bank (1150) registered a net order flow of +93,886 contracts with an order flow ratio of 0.789 and an order imbalance of 8.50x, consistent with concentrated institutional buying. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco (2222) posted a net order flow of +13,373 contracts yet flagged institutional selling with a volume-price divergence, indicating that selling pressure emerged despite nominally positive flow — a structural disconnect warranting close monitoring."
Brent crude rose 1.12% to $82.19 while gold advanced 1.52% to $5,165.65. The US equity regime remains neutral for a fifth consecutive session. The XLE-Aramco transmission channel is broken with 30-day correlation at –0.24, down 0.45 from the prior week, while the SPY-TASI channel held normal status at 0.14 correlation with a 7-day delta of +0.08.
Q4 GDP growth annual data is scheduled for release on March 9, with market consensus at 4.9% against a prior reading of 4.8%. January industrial production year-over-year is scheduled for release on March 10, with a previous reading of 8.9% and no consensus estimate available.
What is not confirmed: Whether the broad breadth recovery within a bear regime classification signals a regime shift or constitutes a bear-market rally. Whether the XLE-Aramco correlation breakdown at –0.24 reflects structural delinking or a temporary divergence driven by global energy fund rotation. Whether institutional selling flagged in Aramco will persist given the conflicting positive net order flow reading and positive price action on the session.