The Tadawul All Share Index closed at 10,893.27 on Thursday in a session marked by a stark divergence between stock-level breadth and sector breadth. Of the issues traded, 183 advanced against 72 declining, yet the market regime remains classified as bear, with 20-day momentum at −6.39% and the average RSI across the index reading 40.02. At the sector level, only 6 of 22 sectors finished in positive territory while 16 declined, underscoring a narrow leadership base beneath the headline advancer count.
Health Care Equipment & Services led the session's gainers with a 0.82% advance, followed by Transportation at 0.58% and Telecom Services at 0.32%. Materials edged up 0.31% with internal breadth of 37 advancers to 6 decliners; the sector's 30-day Brent correlation reads −0.13, indicating limited direct oil sensitivity. Banks fell 0.46%, though internal breadth was constructive at 8 advancing versus 2 declining, with 20-day sector momentum positive at 6.48%. Media & Entertainment was the session's weakest sector, declining 2.17%.
Energy slid 1.11% despite Brent crude surging 6.63% to $98.45 — the XLE-Aramco transmission channel remains broken at a 30-day correlation of −0.46, with a 7-day delta of −0.22. Internal energy breadth was 6 advancing to 1 declining, yet the sector still posted a loss, highlighting Aramco's weight on the index calculation.
Americana Restaurants International (6015) led the session in turnover with 44.5 million shares at 1.08x average volume, falling 2.63% to SAR 1.85. Institutional selling, selling pressure, and volume-price divergence were all flagged, while market-maker activity was detected. Net order flow was deeply negative at −1,913,477 with an order flow ratio of −0.86 and a large-order ratio of 43.42. Americana trades at a trailing P/E of 19.30 and has beaten earnings estimates in each of its reported quarters.
Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (2222) closed at SAR 26.86, down 1.10%, on 25.7 million shares at 1.47x average. Institutional selling, selling pressure, and volume-price divergence were flagged. Despite these signals, the order flow ratio registered at 1.0 with net flow of +298,137, pointing to a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Aramco trades at a trailing P/E of 17.09 with a forward P/E of 15.45; 16 analysts cover the name with a consensus next-year EPS estimate of SAR 1.56 and high disagreement. The overall earnings beat rate stands at 50%, with the most recent quarter a beat.
Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical Co. (2380) fell 4.30% to SAR 8.46 on 9.3 million shares at 1.53x average. Institutional selling, selling pressure, and volume-price divergence were flagged. However, net order flow was positive at +16,207 with an order flow ratio of 0.97, creating a mixed microstructure picture. The stock carries a negative trailing P/E, reflecting ongoing losses.
Saudi Basic Industries Corp. (2010) gained 0.61% to SAR 57.85, drawing 4.7 million shares at 1.95x average. Institutional activity was flagged, with an order imbalance of 86.63 and positive net flow of +19,695. SABIC's trailing P/E of 637.22 reflects near-breakeven profitability; the forward P/E of 15.19 offers a more conventional reference. Six analysts cover the name with a consensus next-year EPS of SAR 1.76 and high disagreement. The overall earnings beat rate is 22.7%, though the most recent quarter was a beat.
The Saudi National Bank (1180) was nearly flat at SAR 40.42, up 0.05%, on volume at 1.02x average. Accumulation and stealth accumulation signals were flagged alongside institutional activity, though selling pressure was also active — creating a nuanced flow picture. Net flow was positive at +12,259 with an order imbalance of 48.15. The bank trades at a trailing P/E of 10.02 with an overall earnings beat rate of 95.0%, though the most recent quarter was a miss.
Among other active names, Al Rajhi Bank (1120) rose 0.20% to SAR 101.20 on volume at 0.89x average, with a distribution signal and seller exhaustion both flagged; net flow was negative at −20,515. Alinma Bank (1150) slipped 0.84% to SAR 28.42 on volume at 0.85x average, with institutional activity and volume-price divergence noted alongside positive net flow of +76,967.
According to the Sigmix Microstructure Engine: Saudi Aramco (2222) recorded net order flow of +298,137 with an order flow ratio of 1.0 despite a 1.10% price decline, reflecting a divergence between underlying flow and closing price. The Saudi National Bank (1180) showed net order flow of +12,259 with an order imbalance of 48.15, consistent with the stealth accumulation signal flagged on this name.
Brent crude surged 6.63% to $98.45, extending its year-to-date gain to 50.83%, yet the TASI-Brent 21-day correlation remains a modest 0.21. Gold was flat at $5,173.21. The US equity regime is neutral, now 13 days in. The SPY-TASI channel holds normal status at a 30-day correlation of 0.17 with a 7-day delta of +0.05.
Saudi February inflation data is scheduled for release on March 15, including the Inflation Rate YoY (previous: 1.8%), Inflation Rate MoM (previous: 0.2%), and Wholesale Prices YoY (previous: 2.9%).
What is not confirmed: Whether the positive stock-level breadth of 183 advancers will translate into sustained sector recovery given only 6 of 22 sectors finished higher remains unclear. It is also unresolved whether the broken XLE-Aramco channel at a 30-day correlation of −0.46 signals a structural decoupling from global energy equities or a temporary dislocation. The stealth accumulation flagged in SNB (1180) may reflect pre-positioning ahead of the March 15 inflation data or routine flow, and whether Brent's 50.83% year-to-date gain will eventually transmit to the Saudi Energy sector is not yet evident.
This report is produced by the Sigmix Intelligence Desk for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. All data is derived from automated systems and may contain errors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.